Here we are at the end of 2023 and that can only mean one thing: it’s time for my parade of predictions for the coming year. My predictions for 2023 were pretty tame, after my past predictions made me look like an idiot in 2022 and before. But it’s been a year, and I think I’m willing to make some big swings. This is what I expect to happen in 2024:
1. Internet speeds don’t increase
Ten years ago, you were lucky if you got 50Mbps at home. Today you can get service advertised as 500Mbps for about the same price. Of course, nothing on the internet actually moves that fast and the chances are pretty great that your local network switch is oversold. You’re probably only reliably getting 50Mbps anyway.
That’s why I think that you won’t see this huge increase in available speeds this year. You’ll see high speed move to more areas, though. Satellite internet services like Starlink will continue to grow in popularity. That will mean more rural areas can get high speed for the first time.
You’ll also see a big jump in use of fixed wireless services. Services like the ones offered by T-Mobile will get more popular. With fixed wireless service, your home is served by a cellular connection rather than fiber. While it won’t immediately mean a drop in prices, eventually fixed wireless should mean paying only one bill for home and cell phone internet instead of paying two.
The bottom line, though, is that these technologies aren’t faster than fiber-based internet, so you won’t see faster speeds this coming year
2. The predicted demise of pay TV won’t happen
It’s been incredibly popular throughout 2023 to say that traditional pay-TV is on the ropes. Sure, it’s true that people are cutting the cord a lot more. It’s also true that both DIRECTV and DISH have seen subscriber numbers drop. However, I think that pay-TV companies have had enough time to figure out how to fight back.
We’ll keep seeing some cable companies try to move their subscribers to streaming-only packages. I don’t think it will work. I think as short-sighted companies try to force their customers to packages they don’t want, people will take a second look at DIRECTV and DISH instead. If you grew up with traditional pay TV and you’re not interested in letting it go, you’ll have an option.
At the same time, DIRECTV and DISH will continue to hone their skills, finding new ways to attract and keep subscribers. I do honestly believe that subscriber numbers for these satellite services will be flat or even show a small increase in 2024.
3. Streaming service piracy will reach new heights
Streaming companies did their customers pretty dirty in 2023. Most of them cut the amount of content while raising rates up to 40%. At the same time, Netflix launched an initiative to try to cut down on shared passwords. I think it’s all going to backfire on them.
I’ve only met one person who genuinely defends these streaming companies, and I think that they work for a streaming company. The rest of us are pretty disgusted with the turn things have taken. It’s harder than ever to get a good deal on streaming, and it’s also harder than ever to find the content you want. Want to watch some superhero films? Good luck if they come from DC, since Max just lost a lot of them to other apps.
What this means is that someone is going to find a way to help more people than ever pirate their streaming apps. I don’t know how it will be done, but I’ve heard one idea. It’s been suggested that “reverse VPN” apps on streaming boxes will let people from anywhere use the IP address of a user’s home streaming box. This would neatly circumvent most password sharing protections.
I’m certainly not saying you should share passwords or use any form of piracy. I don’t intend to do it. But people simply aren’t interested in paying such a high price for these apps and they’re going to find a way around it.
4. Battle Royale in the ATSC 3.0 space, and most folks won’t notice
In 2023, the FCC reauthorized testing for ATSC 3.0, the so-called next generation of TV broadcasting. At the same time, most stations started using Digital Rights Management (copy protection) on their broadcasts. Somehow it’s legal for them to do so, and I’m not sure how, but that’s another matter. During the year, the Pearl TV alliance tried desperately to find someone to build a sub-$100 converter box. No sign of that box yet.
At the same time, in 2023 LG announced it will no longer be including ATSC 3.0 tuners in their TVs, due to a patent dispute which they lost. It’s hard to know if other manufacturers will follow suit, but we’ll probably find out more at the CES show in a little while.
All this adds up to a big fight for ATSC 3.0. Big broadcast groups like Sinclair really want this tech because it means non-skippable ads that are tailored to your personal profile. On the other hand, literally everyone else is telling the industry that they’re not interested in going back to TV that you can’t pause or record.
Who wins at the end of the day? No one. I’m guessing that we’ll see no real movement toward ATSC 3.0 for roughly the tenth consecutive year.
Does it seem like I’m a little pessimistic?
Don’t think that I enjoy putting that vibe out. I actually think internet and pay TV will really flourish in 2024. There will be plenty of winners in the coming year. The only losers will be those companies that think they can offer less stuff for more money, and those who think they can force customers into something they don’t want. Don’t blame me if that’s a pretty good description of about half of the entertainment industry.
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