Faced with a deadline of July 17, 2023 for the end of ATSC 3.0 test broadcasts, the FCC has taken a step which essentially saves the new technology from extinction, while leaving a lot of other questions open for the future. Like the FCC of 2017, today’s FCC is counting on tomorrow’s FCC to solve those problems, but at the very least they haven’t allowed ATSC 3.0 to die from inaction.
What I’m really talking about
In a long public statement, the FCC has come to the rescue of ATSC 3.0, but done little else. The deadline for the end of testing for ATSC 3.0 has been pushed to July 17, 2027. The FCC has also put a little reminder in their calendars to look at things in 2026 to see if this deadline needs to be pushed again.
Honestly, that’s all they seem to have done. Here’s a short list of what they could have done, and didn’t:
- Recommended a federal incentive to pay people who buy converter boxes
- Required all TVs to become ATSC 3.0-capable by a specific date
- Funded additional research into making low-cost converter boxes
- Allowed ATSC 3.0 channels to broadcast materially different programs than ATSC 1.0 (which would have allowed 4K over-the-air)
- Set a hard stop for all ATSC 1.0 broadcasts
That last one seems to have been of particular interest as the commissioners have been vocal in their disagreement. According to Cord Cutters News,
FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel said, “I think that a lot of people in this room believe that ATSC 1.0 needs to have a hard sunset target and that we should migrate to 3.0 at that point.”
FCC Commissioner Nathan Simington thinks that a gradual transition would be more fitting. “Having people preferentially gravitate towards the 3.0 content, and having new universal penetration of 3.0 and new devices are the goals that would make it easy to get a terminal date for 1.0, and it seems like it’s easier to accomplish by a pull than by a push.”
Instead of suddenly eliminating 1.0, Simington feels a natural shift will take place with consumers who will eventually embrace 3.0 and make 1.0 obsolete in the process. “Turning off 1.0 becomes totally non-controversial because then everyone will have forgotten it was there.”
The FCC also said that they will “consider” temporarily making more channels available during the testing period, but I have to presume that’s like when you would ask your mom if you could have some toy or other and she said she’d “consider” it. It usually meant you weren’t getting the toy.
When will things actually change?
That’s really the question, isn’t it? When will we get low-cost converter boxes for real? When will the issue with encryption really be solved? When will we have over-the-air 4K and all those other services? The way things are now, there’s no real need for anyone to even try ATSC 3.0 services since everything broadcast on ATSC 3.0 is also available on a regular 1.0 station.
You will occasionally here someone comment on how something looks better on an ATSC 3.0 station, and that’s likely true, especially if the station normally broadcasts in 720p. ATSC 3.0 allows for more picture information at a lower bitrate, which can make the picture look better. But let’s be clear here: it’s not 4K.
What the FCC did here is essentially a punt, and it’s better than nothing. By taking action, they’re allowing the testing to continue. Without their action, it would have all ended. But since they haven’t answered any of the real questions, I still have doubts.
If we look at this time frame, we’re now talking about 2030 or so before we really see the full transition to ATSC 3.0, and 2027 before we see 4K over-the-air. I have to wonder if there will be any demand at all for it at that point. By that time it’s perfectly possible that streaming and pay-TV will have gone to 8K or something else, and over-the-air will be left behind again.
One more thing…
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