Here’s some stuff you already knew.
The generation born in the US between 1946 and 1964 was, at the time, the largest generation in history. The term “baby boom” was coined to describe it. At the time, a “boom” was an economic condition where everyone tried to get into the same industry at the same time.
That generation was also the first to watch television from a young age, in some cases since birth. They developed an incredibly strong attachment to TV. Not surprising, since for most of their lives, it was the only pervasive way to get news and information that included moving images. It was much more engaging than its competitors like radio and newspapers.
The youngest boomer is now, as I write this, 58 and about to turn 59.
The generation born in the US between 1965 and 1980 tends to be lumped in with the baby boomers. Dubbed “Generation X” sometime in the 1990s, their relatively small size meant that they often had no choice but to follow boomer trends. They tended to be even more wedded to television than boomers, but were young enough at the dawn of the internet to embrace it.
The youngest GenXer is now, as I write this, 42 and about to turn 43.
Here’s why I’m reminding you of all this.
The three generations that followed Generation X never formed the same attachment to television as their uncles and parents. In fact as you go through Millennials, Zoomers, and Alphas, you find progressively less interest in television, especially broadcast. Sure, you’ll find the occasional millennial, struggling financially, who really grubs on the great free content they can find. But for the most part, these are generations that embrace the on-demand world of streaming. As they get younger, their attention spans shrink to the point where you see kids under 10 who won’t sit still for any video over 20 seconds.
And that’s a problem for broadcast television.
Broadcast TV’s model has been consistent for its entire life. Programs that run between 22 and 48 minutes, with commercials that round the shows up to 30 and 60 minutes respectively. But again, you know this. The commercials pay for the programming, and it’s assumed you’ll just sit there and watch. In the boomer days before DVRs, you generally had no choice.
Today, things are different. Younger generations aren’t swayed by commercials. You’d think they would be, considering they’re just short videos. But truth is, they’re not. More importantly, younger folks aren’t interested in sitting still waiting for commercials to end. They’re also not interested in sitting down to a TV at the appointed time and watching a show without interruption. It’s just not part of their culture.
So, broadcast TV developed a boomer addiction.
In the 10s, broadcast networks made their last attempt to attract millennials. I was there, and I commented on it. In the decade since, they’ve decided that the best way to stay afloat is to cater to the people who actually still watch TV: boomers (and GenX). As TV watchers get older, you see fewer commercials for things like jeans and music and more commercials for things like incontinence products and blood pressure medications. It’s become a vicious circle. TV caters to older folks, because they watch, but if a younger person tries to watch, they’re often put off by the old-person vibe.
This would be fine of course, if we all weren’t getting older.
As people age, they go through predictable phases. Most folks in their 50s spend more, but their established buying habits mean they’re less susceptible to advertising. Folks in their 60s and above spend less and less as they become concerned about fixed incomes. As people reach their 80s and above, they find themselves part of a rapidly dwindling group that advertisers can’t reach at all. Of course these are all huge generalizations, but they also have more than a nugget of truth.
Put all this together and what you’re getting is that within a fairly short period of time, the only people who will be watching broadcast TV will be the ones who always have. And they will be buying less and less. That’s bad news for broadcasters, obviously.
What would it take to kick the boomer habit?
When great challenges arise, smart people innovate. And I have a lot of confidence in broadcasters. I think the broadcast establishment has been slow to move forward. But, as we get to the point where it’s evolve or die, I just know that broadcasters will pull it together. Faced with challenges like striking performers, shrinking markets, lagging advancement into new technologies, and overall economic slowing, they’re going to pull it together.
I think we’re at the perfect moment for some broadcasters to kick the boomer habit. It’s great that there’s TV out there for us graybeards. But there also needs to be TV that appeals to the younger folks. I think there’s room for both.
I wish I knew exactly what the magic formula was. There has to be a way to get younger folks interested in traditional TV that just makes sense. I have no idea what it is. But I do know that there are people a lot smarter than me who are thinking about the same thing. That’s what gives me hope.
