Oh, to be back in 2018 when we didn’t know what we didn’t know. Back then, I wrote an article called “OPINION: Worth it to go to the movies?” which you can still find on this blog. In it, I lamented the fact that most people stopped going to the movies. Data at the time suggested that the average person went to the movies fewer than five times a year, and many of those slots were filled with Disney summer blockbusters of declining quality.
It’s five years later. A lot has changed. A lot hasn’t. The summer’s largely devoid of Marvel and Star Wars films, although Disney and Pixar have made a showing. Those films, The Little Mermaid and Elemental, haven’t been well reviewed and I’m not sure that they’ll meet expectations. But hey, Disney always has Avatar to fall back on.
Do I even need to talk about…
Back in 2018 we had a choice whether or not to see movies in theaters. Today, we have that choice again. In between, we didn’t. You know why. I know why. Let’s not get into it. Just suffice it to say that for about 18 months, the movie theater industry was essentially dead. It’s surprising to me that it came back to life, but it did. The theater industry recruited Nicole Kidman to tell us to go to the movies. That didn’t work. Then they stopped sending films straight to streaming. That kind of worked. Tom Cruise gets a lot of credit for creating the first blockbuster of the post-2020 era, although I’m not sure he deserves it. Top Gun: Maverick is a great film. It really is. But would it have been such a success in a different era? I think it was more of a case of being at the right place at the right time.
Regardless of my predictions, the outlook for theaters is pretty good.
Take a look at this chart from Statista:
(You can see more here.) They believe 2023 movie theater revenue will exceed its 2019 highs this year and keep on growing. However, this is global revenue, with a lot of the expected growth coming from Asia. Projections of US theater revenue aren’t so rosy. Plus, you need to know that these numbers are not adjusted for inflation. When you look at the number of tickets sold, we’re still near 1995 levels in every study I could find.
So will theaters die out, and should they?
Five years after writing that article, (and roughly four years since the last time I saw a movie in a theater), I’m inclined to be a little more sympathetic. Movie theater owners haven’t had it so great in the last few decades. They’ve put in upgrade after upgrade only to find their share of revenues dropping. Studios depend more on pay-per-view now than ever, and then there are content producers like Netflix whose work is never even seen in a theater. It’s tough to own a theater in 2023 and if you’re still doing it, I say more power to ya.
Still, it seems to me that the glory days of the giant cineplex are over, just like the glory days of the mega mall or big-box shopping center. It’s just too darn convenient to stay home, and there just aren’t enough great movies that you really want to pay $50 to see. (That’s two tickets, overpriced snacks, etc.)
Sadly theater owners will still have a rough time in the next few years and will need to keep evolving to make sure that they stay around. I hope they do, but I have a feeling many won’t.
And here’s what I have to say to those Hollywood types
I know there are some auteurs who say, “you have to see the movie in the theater as the director intended.” To that I say, horse hockey. See a movie in a way that it’s going to resonate with you personally. If you like being in a big crowd, do that. If you like being able to pause a movie, take a break, or just give up on it halfway through if it’s not that bad, do that. It’s great that there are options today. I don’t buy into the whole idea that the filmmaker has a right to dictate your viewing conditions. I think instead, a good filmmaker creates a good film that can be seen in practically any conditions and still have an impact.
And in the meantime, I was thinking of maybe going back to the theater this summer at some point, but it’s so much less convenient than just sitting at home. Call me an old curmudgeon if you will.
