Will live TV really be dead in 3 years?

If you spend enough time searching the internet, you’ll find article like this one from CNBC, titled “What will TV look like in three years? These industry insiders share their predictions.” This article is pretty depressing when it comes to the outlook for live TV in the future. It’s pretty amazing when you consider some of the people who are quoted have been TV executives for decades and the article itself comes from a TV news network.

So how can they say that things look so bad for live TV? And are they right? I’m only a blogger and I don’t make those big salaries like those guys, but I’m a lot more optimistic… mostly. There are some headwinds to be sure but I think overall the future is brighter than most of them say. Here’s my rationale, both good and bad.

Why would these executives trash live TV?

I don’t know why, but if you look closely you’ll see that most of the people who were interviewed are former TV executives. They were big names ten years ago, now they’re retired. It may seem like they’d want to stay positive about their careers, but that’s not how people are. People like to believe that they are so important their jobs will collapse without them. Admit it, you’ve thought the same thing.

GOOD: Boomers still love live TV.

The baby boom generation still has some say, even though they’re not the focus of the world’s advertising budgets. Boomers may be heading to senior communities in record numbers, but that doesn’t mean they’re irrelevant. I expect the generation born between 1945 and 1964 to keep wanting live TV for as long as they’re around. With an average life expectancy of about 80, that keeps live TV safe until about 2044.

By the way, the under-mentioned Generation X still loves live TV too, and the last of that group turns 80 in 2059. That’s still a long way off.

BAD: Live TV relies on people who are willing to pay for it

The traditional TV delivery systems have always relied on two things to keep those shows flowing: commercials and pay TV bills. As people get older, they tend to spend less, and that means advertising is less effective. It also means that they’ll look to save money by cutting cable.

I don’t think that’s as high of a hurdle, though. Look at the growth in advertiser-supported streaming. The model still works. What needs to change are high production budgets for live TV. You can do a lot of programming less expensively now than you could in the past. Honestly, a couple of iPhones, some ring lights, and a decent PC will let you do some amazing work.

GOOD: TV is still changing and evolving

For an industry that people think is dying, it’s pretty impressive how much it’s evolving. The major networks still find ways to come up with things people watch. Local channels have beefed up news and sports coverage. And, we’re seeing a lot of change in the kind of things people will watch. There’s a renewed market for old TV shows, which are cheap to get and show. Older folks might rather die than get on TikTok, but they’ll watch a half-hour show full of curated videos quite happily. Things are changing fast, and that’s not going to stop.

BAD: The big over-the-air transition might not happen

Longtime readers of this blog know I’m not bullish on the transition to ATSC 3.0, the so-called next generation of TV broadcasting. It’s already too late, it’s been badly handled so far, and it’s being promoted as “you’ll get 4K programming” when in fact there is no 4K programming.

The FCC will have to make a decision by the end of July as to how to proceed. There’s a very good chance they’ll say that it’s not going to work out, and there’s an equal chance they’ll say that it needs more time to develop. Either way, it could be a while before we actually see any 4K programming at all.

GOOD: It’s easier than ever

Live TV is still everywhere. And, it’s easier than ever to put up an antenna and get free live TV. You can get TV at home, in your RV, on your boat, and in your business. Today’s antennas are smaller and more powerful than older ones, and some of them are even good-looking!

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