2016 was only seven years ago. That doesn’t seem like such a long time. Yet, it’s been seven long years. I don’t need to remind you of what the last seven years have brought us, do I? I’d rather look back happily on a time when we all had no idea what was ahead of us.
Broadcast TV in 2016
In August of 2016, I published my annual Fall TV Preview article. I always liked the Fall TV Preview issues of TV Guide and I think it’s cool that I sort of got to do my own. But 2016 was right on the cusp of the streaming revolution. Today we don’t really think about a show being a “broadcast” show as opposed to a “streaming” show. Back then, we did. So I went on a deep dive of the upcoming broadcast TV season. If you’re up for a laugh, you can read it here. I even came back to it a couple of months later to see how each one of those shows fared. Spoiler alert, the answer is, “Not that well.”
Do you even remember these shows?
Of that list, I had vague recollections of some, but the only two that went the distance were This is Us and Riverdale. The rest barely made it into a second season. That’s not a great batting average. Yet, that’s what broadcast TV had been pitching us for years and years. 30-40 shows a year with maybe 2 that become hits. No wonder the broadcast nets today are full of more CSIs and Law&Orders. When your chances of a second season pickup are so low, you’re better off starting with a known hit. That in itself explains why it seems like Yellowstone prequels are popping up like weeds now. The original show is one of the few hits of the last few years that wasn’t based on something else.
It’s gotta be heartbreaking.
Put yourself in the shoes of these showrunners, actors, and writers. Your chances of even getting a pilot are a thousand to one. Get a pilot and maybe a third will get an 8-episode order. And once you’re on TV, you have about a one in sixteen chance of even getting a second season. I’m too lazy to do the math but it seems to me you have a better chance of being killed by a falling meteor than being on a hit show.
For a while, it seemed like streaming was increasing those odds. The sheer volume of new shows on Netflix alone has been staggering for several years. It’s enough to make you think that those executives would greenlight practically anything. But of course, that tide has turned today too. Now, even with all those streaming apps, all those pay-TV channels, all those premiums, you’re more likely to win the lottery than get a show on the air for more than a couple of weeks.
Just goes to show…
…even the experts don’t know what’s going to really become a hit. The presence of an experienced producer or bankable actor doesn’t guarantee anything. And yet, TV and streaming executives get paid an awful lot of money. Their bosses must somehow believe that a 1:20,000 track record is better than most folks could do. All I’m saying is, I’m just a little envious. I am pretty sure I could do better than that so… put me in Coach! I’m ready to play today! (Just kidding, I love my job.)
